I told we we like CASH!!!
In fact, we told we on Friday morning in a Report titled: “TGIF – Silly, Low-Volume, Pumped-Up Week Finally Ends“, saying:
“Volume has been malnutritioned this week too with, 55M SPY shares trade on Monday, 67M shares on Tuesday, 59M shares on Weds and 68M shares yesterday vs an normal volume of 101M shares so about 35% next “normal” volume, that is already tighten to half of final year’s volume. Why is volume drying adult like this? Because bonds are some-more costly so a same income buys reduction and reduction batch and, given a economy isn’t unequivocally flourishing – there is no some-more income to compensate for a bonds – usually a lot of idiots SPECULATING that there will be income to compensate these absurd prices one day, so it’s not critical to indeed acquire any income given a larger dope speculation will repair everything.
“The biggest fools, of course, are a final people to buy during a tip – we call them bag-holders and we have been observant all week that this exam of a Strong Bounce Lines is a good time to dump your bonds on a bagholders that are entrance in and get behind to CASH!!!. Again, we can usually tell we what is expected to occur and how to make income trade it – a rest is adult to you!”
So distant this week, a markets are down and a Dollar is adult 1.5% and still climbing this morning during 93.50 – that’s putting vigour on a indexes and line that creates people panic out of those and they afterwards direct some-more CASH!!!, that drives adult a cost of Dollars (as they get scarce) and a cycle continues. People are also perplexing to trade in their failing Tbills for money – so even some-more direct for cash. Thank integrity housing is still passed or a Dollar would be behind over 100!
We’re anxious to have a good small pullback and we even bought a integrate of bonds yesterday but, on a whole, we’re even some-more anxious to be especially in CASH!!! during this duration of marketplace uncertainty. You can review my rant about cashing out from final Wednesday and, if we didn’t, it’s OK as we’re behind where we started on that day and now we’re looking to re-test a diseased rebound line on a SP during 2,684.
Yesterday, however, we focused on a Nasdaq shorts during a 7,000 line and now a /NQ Futures are down during 6,889 so we set a stop over 6,900 to close in a $2,000 per agreement benefit but, hopefully, we will collect a full $10,000 per agreement we were anticipating for as a Nasdaq falls to a 6,500 target.
None of this is TA, by a way, we’re simply regulating a 5% Rule™, that uses good, out-of-date MATH to let us know what ranges we should be personification in (see yesterday’s Report for a run-down of a Big 5 Indexes). When we know a ranges, we know when to reason them and we know when to overlay them – and THAT is a tip to successful investing. This morning we motionless to brief a Russell (/RTX) Futures during 1,602.50, as that is a lagging index to a downside this morning.
Volume on a SP was over 50% aloft than it was on Monday though I’m awaiting a higher-volume pierce down before we start to severely demeanour for a rebound given a whole “rally” final week was zero though low-volume BS, mostly disorder a suckers in to reason a bags while title bonds like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) propped adult a market. You can see it in a really sore volume on SPY:
Here’s usually a few of a things that are going wrong in a World this morning:
- Hawaii volcano sparks red alert
- Clock ticks down for new NAFTA
- China offloaded U.S. Treasuries in March
- Bonds Bullion Bloodbath As Dow Dumps Into Red For 2018.
- N.Korea expands hazard to cancel summit
- Japan snaps mercantile expansion streak
- Global Synchronous Recovery Collapses As Japanese GDP Plunges In Q1.
- Asian Stocks Decline as U.S. Treasury Yields Climb
- IEA cuts oil direct foresee for 2018
- Mortgage focus continue to tumble as seductiveness rates rise
- Why a Credit-Card Boom May Have Just Peaked
- Pimco’s Mead sees US 10-year book yields commanding during 3.5%: Bloomberg
Seriously, that’s usually this morning! You competence consider I’m cherry-picking bad news though go demeanour for yourself – I’ll wait… See, not good, right? You can buy a drop if we wish and, as we noted, we are still doing some bargain-shopping though zero we aren’t formulation to double down on if they get 20% cheaper – that is what we design if we have a correct marketplace correction.
For now, we’re usually watchful to see if a 1,600 line binds on a Russell which, so far, is being kept aloft by a clever Dollar (Russell Small Caps tend to do 80% of their business in a US, so a clever Dollar is good for them) as good as 2,700 on a SP (/ES), 6,900 on a Nasdaq (/NQ) and 25,650 on a Dow (/YM). If 3 of those 4 go over or underneath those lines we can go prolonged or brief a lagging index with parsimonious stops.
Macy’s (NYSE:M) knocked it out of a park on gain and are adult 10% pre-market and that competence give a sell zone a good lift that keeps us immature in a morning. Otherwise, there’s not most information now so we’ll wait and see that approach things go. Friday is choice death day on Friday.
Be clever out there!
Disclosure: I am/we are brief DIA, SPY, QQQ, TSLA.
I wrote this essay myself, and it expresses my possess opinions. we am not receiving remuneration for it. we have no business attribute with any association whose batch is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Positions as indicated though theme to RAPIDLY change (currently especially money and an differently somewhat bearish brew of prolonged and brief positions – see prior posts for other trade ideas).